Fri 7 May, 2010
Election 2010 — Hung Parliaments, Coalitions, Proportional Representation and the BNP
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With only 34 results still outstanding, Britain faces its first “hung parliament” since 1974 and the next Government — if there is to be one and not a new election in a few month’s time — will be a coalition of at least two of the three big parties, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative.
Ironically, this provides the British National Party (which spectacularly more than tripled its vote from 2005, jumping from 192,746 to a healthy 536,223 in yesterday’s contest) with its best window of opportunity yet.
The kingmaker in any coalition will be the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg. Their key demand for participation in a coalition is electoral reform, and in particular the abolition of the current “first-past-the-post” election system.
The reason why the Liberal Democrats oppose the first-past-the-post system is that it clearly puts smaller parties (which is what the Liberal Democrats are) are a hugely unfair disadvantage.
The figures tell the story: yesterday the Liberal Democrats won around 23 percent of the vote, but will end up with only 7 percent of the seats in Parliament.
The BNP, which polled close to a million votes in June 2009, and over half a million yesterday (despite only fighting half of all the available 650 seats), will end up with no seats at all.
In effect, the first-past-the-post system simply throws millions of votes onto the rubbish heap where they are ignored.
As a result, the Liberal Democrats have, in my personal opinion, correctly argued for the introduction of proportional representation (PR) in Britain.
Most European countries already have PR and it works perfectly well.
Under a PR system, if a party gets 10 percent of the votes, it gets 10 percent of the seats in Parliament. If it gets 32 percent of the vote, it gets 32 percent of the seats, and so on.
It is an obviously fairer way of allowing all votes cast in an election be reflected in Parliament.
In fact, a slightly amended system of PR is used in European Parliamentary elections, which allowed the BNP to win its two seats in that body in June 2009.
If the Liberal Democrats are involved in a coalition with either Labour or Conservatives, it is inevitable that they will set the demand for a PR system as one of the preconditions for their cooperation.
In fact, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has already made this demand in public – and both Labour and Conservatives have announced their willingness to consider it or at the very least hold a referendum on the topic.
What does this mean for the BNP?
Based on yesterday’s quite impressive vote totals (which imply that if the entire country had been covered with BNP candidates, the party’s vote would be well in excess of a million), the BNP would win in excess of 60 seats in Westminster overnight.

As the coalition negotiations begin, let those who might feel disappointed at the BNP’s failure to secure a parliamentary seat yesterday, reflect on what might happen in a short while.
The introduction of PR to Britain will dramatically change the face of British politics and propel the BNP into the mainstream political debate for once and for all.

